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China’s shadow lending system could be trying its hand at sub-prime banking. Of course, if 民間二胎, it will likely be what exactly George Soros is warning about since January when he announced he was shorting your local currency, the renmimbi.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission said on the weekend that Shanghai banks can no longer cooperating with six mortgage brokers for about 1 month for violating lending policies. Branches of seven commercial banks admitted on Monday that they can suspend mortgage lending for clients brokered by those six firms for 2 months in an attempt to clamp upon “gray-market” home loans, the Shanghai office from the Commission said.

It’s unclear exactly what China means with the “gray market”, however it does appear to be mortgage brokers along with their partner banks are operating with time to acquire investors and first-timers right into a home as China’s economy slows.

If this is happening in Shanghai, think about the interior provinces where you will discover a housing glut and they also are certainly more determined by the real estate business for revenue.

The central and western provinces have already been hit hard by the slowdown from the whole economy and as a result, existing property supply might be a hard sell, Macquarie Capital analysts led by Ian Roper wrote in a report included in Bloomberg on Monday. Another wave of the latest housing construction won’t aid to resolve the oversupply issue in these regions, and mortgage lenders might be using some “ancient Chinese secrets” to either unload these to buyers or fund them a little more creatively.

For some observers, this looks a bit an excessive amount of like just what the seeds of any housing and financial disaster all rolled into one.

The creative items that wiped out U.S. housing in 2008 — referred to as mortgaged backed securities and collateralized debt obligations bound to sub-prime mortgages — had been a massive, trillion dollar market. That’s far from the truth in China. But that mortgage backed securities industry is growing. As they are China’s debt market. China’s debt doesn’t pay a hell of any lot, so some investors looking for a bigger bang may go downstream and look for themselves in uncharted Chinese waters with derivative products loaded with unsavory real estate property obligations.

The Chinese securitization market took off a year ago which is now approaching $100 billion. It is actually Asia’s biggest, outpacing Japan by three to 1.

Leading the drive are big state-owned banks just like the ones in Shanghai which may have temporarily de-activate entry to their loans from questionable mortgage firms. Others in the derivatives business include mid-sized financial firms planning to package loans into collateralized loan obligations (CLO), which are distinct from CDOs insofar because they are not pools of independent mortgages. However, CLOs could include loans to housing developers reliant on those independent mortgages.

China’s housing bubble is different in comparison to the Usa because — currently — there has been no foreclosure crisis and the derivatives market that feeds off home mortgages is small. Moreover, China home buyers must make large down payments. What generated the sub-prime housing market in the U.S. was the practice by mortgage brokers to approve applications of people who had no money to put down on the property. China avoids that, on paper, simply because of its down payment requirement.

Precisely what is not clear is what real estate property developers are sticking with that policy, and who seems to be not. As well as in the instance where that sort of debt gets packed in to a derivative product, then China’s credit gets to be a concern.

The marketplace for asset backed securities in China has expanded thanks to an alternative issuance system. Further healthy expansion of financial derivatives might help pull a significant sum from the country’s notoriously opaque shadow banking sector and put it back on banks’ books, giving China more transparency.

But Shanghai’s crackdown this weekend reveals that authorities are keeping a detailed eye on mortgage loan brokers even if your “gray market” is not really necessarily related to derivatives.

Kingsley Ong, somebody at law firm Eversheds International who helped draft China’s asset-backed security laws in 2007, called the potential for securitization in China “nearly unlimited”.

The lack of industry experience and widespread failure to disclose financial information have raised questions regarding its ultimate impact on the broader economy.

All of this “eerily resembles what went down in the financial crisis in the U.S. in 2007-08, which was similarly fueled by credit growth,” Soros said in a meeting with the Asia Society in The Big Apple on April 20. “The majority of the money that banks are supplying is required to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive,” he explained.

China’s securitization market took shape in April of 2005 but was suspended during 2009 because of the Usa housing crisis as well as its link to the derivatives market China is currently building. Regulators lifted the ban on mortgage backed securities in May 2012, though they outlawed re-securitization products and synthetic CDOs, that are CDOs of CDOs, the uicide squeeze that helped kill dozens of American banks including Lehman and Bear Stearns.

China Banking Regulatory Commission is opening the CDO market to domestic and international investors. Given the size and unruliness of China’s market, this is fraught with problems in the get-go. It’s a very small market, so short sellers like Soros can’t blame it on any implosion of China’s overall economy. Only around 50 billion yuan has been granted by the regulators for CDO trading. The size and potential only compares with the United states

CDOs can help China whittle back debts at and enable some banks move several of its portfolio risk outside the domestic financial system and to the hands of emerging market fixed income fund managers. The Financial Times estimated in March that China has around 1.27 trillion yuan ($194 billion) in uncollaterized debt, but they state that analysts estimate the genuine number to get many times higher. That may be at least partially due to real estate developers, who definitely have been busy strengthening “ghost cities” for more than a decade. The CDO market will enable banks to help keep underwriting home loans to job-creating construction firms and pass them onto foreign investors that are being in love with the narrative that Chinese fixed income is an integral part of a global, diversified portfolio.

The Shanghai branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) was forced by city bank authorities to turn off its clients business with seven mortgage brokers. The issue is, the ruling stands for just 2 months. (Photo by LAURENT FIEVET/AFP/Getty Images)

This weekend’s decision by Shanghai bank regulators also shows just how much potential there exists for stench in the system.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission stated it made its decision Saturday after “careful inspection in the mortgage business at commercial bank outlets, and certain misconduct that dexrpky37 been discovered.”

The misconduct includes “transferring home loans to a 3rd party — neither seller nor buyer in the property — who later wired the money to a property agency, and also down payments raised through property agencies.”

The six property firms include 房屋二胎; Shanghai Pacific Rehouse Service and Shanghai Hanyu Property Consultancy.

Nobody knows those names. But the seven bank outlets that got scolded Saturday include Industrial and Commercial Bank of Chinanull, your budget of China, China Construction Bank, your budget of Communications, SPD Bank and HSBC Shanghai.

The measures happened on a monthly basis after having a joint notice from the Commission’s Shanghai office and also the local branch from the People’s Bank of China vows to step up efforts to regulate mortgage loan operations, reduce systematic risks for the banks and develop real estate debt market.